Ag Market Commentary

Corn futures gave back some of midday gains, but finished the day mixed. The gains were in the May and later contracts as nearby Dec lost 1 1/2. Brazilian Export Data for November shows that the country exported 1.783 MMT less corn in November than October, with 4.2883 MMT of Nov corn shipments. Last year the country shipped 3.646 MMT in November. Brazil also exported less ethanol mo/mo, but more yr/yr. Brazil shipped 181.1 mln L (1.139 mln barrels). The CAIR Grain crush report showed that there were 436.780 mbu crushed in October, which was 7.7% higher corn use than September, but was a 5.43% reduction from October 2018. Yesterday’s Crop Progress Report showed that national corn harvest is 9 percentage points behind average. The state the furthest behind is ND @ 36% complete, behind their average pace by 59 percentage points. WI is 25 percentage points behind their average, and MI is minus 23 points.

Dec 19 Corn closed at $3.72, down 1 1/2 cents,

Mar 20 Corn closed at $3.81 1/4, down 3/4 cent,

May 20 Corn closed at $3.87 1/4, up 3/4 cent,

Jul 20 Corn closed at $3.91 3/4, up 1 1/2 cents,

---provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Nearby soybean futures made fractional gains on Turnaround Tuesday. Soybean meal finished the Tuesday session with a gain of $1.20/ton. Soy oil futures also finished in the black, after a 3 point gain. Brazil’s official export data for November showed that the country exported 5.158 MMT through the month. That about matches (-700 MT) their October shipments, but was 7.06% larger than Nov 2018. Soymeal exports were 0.22 MMT lower than their October shipments. Analysts polled believe that Brazil’s soybean crop size will be revised upward. The average expectation for the 19/20 crop is 122.7 MMT which would be a 6.7% hike from the government’s last update.

Jan 20 Soybeans closed at $8.71, up 1/2 cent,

Mar 20 Soybeans closed at $8.85 1/2, up 1/4 cent,

May 20 Soybeans closed at $9.00 3/4, up 1/2 cent,

Jul 20 Soybeans closed at $9.14, up 1/2 cent,

Dec 19 Soybean Meal closed at $292.50, up $1.20

Dec 19 Soybean Oil closed at $29.99, up $0.03

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Winter Wheat futures were lower, however MGE HRS wheat futures continued to go up on the day. Chicago wheat was lower by 7 to 12 3/4 cents, with the worst losses in the soon to be expired December and the March contracts. Nearby Kansas City wheat was also double digits lower in the December contract. Dec futures were 14 3/4 cents lower, but the other months were only 2 1/2 to 3 cents lower. MGE HRS wheat made gains from 2 3/4 to 4 1/2 cents. Thailand issued an international tender for 120,000 MT of feed wheat. Japan has issued a regular Ministry of Ag wheat weekly tender. The country is looking for 160,640 MT of wheat with March delivery. Egypt purchased 295,000 MT of Russian wheat in their tender.

Dec 19 CBOT Wheat closed at $5.30 1/2, down 12 3/4 cents,

Dec 19 KCBT Wheat closed at $4.22 1/2, down 14 3/4 cents,

Dec 19 MGEX Wheat closed at $4.94, up 4 1/2 cents,

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Live cattle futures were mixed after Tuesday’s close, the April contracts were nudged 2 cents in the black while Feb and Dec futures remained lower. Feeder cattle futures were also mixed at the closing bell, as they couldn’t hang on to midday gains. The 12/02 CME Feeder Cattle index was $145.03 after gaining 6 cents. Official Brazilian exports show beef shipments of 155,600 MT for Nov, which is down from October shipments, but they exported 19.23% more than November a year ago. Afternoon boxed beef prices were lower but tighten the spread to $17.84. Choice boxes were $2.46 lower, but select boxes were $0.67 lower. Tomorrow’s FCE online cattle auction will host 1,189 head, 827 from NE 230 head from KS and TX offering 142 head. Cash cattle activity has been light recently, the USDA has reported 80% choice dressed sales of $187.00, and live from sales $116 - $119 throughout the week. USDA estimated the weekly total FI cattle slaughter at 240,000 head through the beginning of the week. Monday’s estimate was revised to 120,000.

Dec 19 Cattle closed at $120.550, down $0.200,

Feb 20 Cattle closed at $125.650, down $0.150,

Apr 20 Cattle closed at $126.225, up $0.025,

Jan 20 Feeder Cattle closed at $142.375, up $0.225

Mar 20 Feeder Cattle closed at $142.925, down $0.100

Apr 20 Feeder Cattle closed at $144.950, down $0.025

---provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Lean hog futures more than regained yesterday’s drops, with nearby contracts gaining $1.70 to $2.22 after turnaround Tuesday action. The 11/29 CME Lean Hog Index was $57.35 after dropping a full dollar. The USDA pork carcass cutout value was $80.61 after a $2.25 reduction, the belly was $9.99 lower. USDA’s national average base hog price for 12/03 has started to regain previous drops, it moved triple digits $44.80. A Chinese Ag Ministry official claimed that “Pork inventories are relatively ample for the 4th quarter”. Emphasis on relatively! Official export data from Brazil showed pork shipments for the month of November were 57,600 MT. That is 7.84% lower mo/mo, but 12.94% above November of ’18. USDA estimated FI hog slaughter for Tuesday at 495,000 head, just shy of yesterday’s record, and pushing the weekly total to 992,000 head.

Dec 19 Hogs closed at $62.500, up $2.150,

Feb 20 Hogs closed at $68.375, up $2.225

Apr 20 Hogs closed at $74.275, up $1.700

---provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Cotton futures settled another 70 to 76 points lower. Renewed trade friction with Brazil, Argentina and France caused bulls to reconsider ambitious export ideas. US harvest progress has also put plenty of cotton into the near term pipeline. Delivery notices against December futures continue to dribble out from Dreyfus to an SG Americas client. There have been 810 for the crop year. The Seam Reported 7,655 bales sold for an avg. gross price of 56.48 cents/bale. The Dec 2 Cotlook A Index was 45 points lower at 74.55 cents per pound. The AWP is 56.20 cents /lb.

Dec 19 Cotton closed at 63.1, down 75 points,

Mar 20 Cotton closed at 64.05, down 75 points

May 20 Cotton closed at 65.15, down 76 points

Jul 20 Cotton closed at 66.16, down 70 points

---provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Market Commentary provided by:

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