Ag Market Commentary

The corn futures market traded higher on suspected short covering in the Thursday session, to be confirmed with OI data. Futures closed the session with gains of 4 3/4 to 7 cents. July corn was up double digits at one point. EIA ethanol data from the week ending May 22 showed another round of increased production and lower stocks. Production was up 61,000 bpd wk/wk to 724,000 barrels produced per day. Ethanol stocks were down 450,000 barrels to 23.176 million. That’s the smallest stockpile since January. Regionally, PADD Midwest district stocks were down 11,000 barrels to the lowest since the week ending December 13 in 2019. Ahead of the weekly Export Sales report, traders are looking for 0.5 to 1 MMT of old crop sales and 50k to 300k MT of new crop corn sales. The International Grains Council raised their 2020/21 world corn production estimate to 1.169 BMT, up 11 MMT but still 18 MMT below USDA.

Jul 20 Corn closed at $3.27 1/2, up 7 cents,

Sep 20 Corn closed at $3.31 3/4, up 6 1/2 cents,

Dec 20 Corn closed at $3.40 1/4, up 5 3/4 cents,

Mar 21 Corn closed at $3.52, up 5 1/2 cents,

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

The Thursday session left the front soybean futures mixed. Old crop contracts were down 1 and 1 1/2 cents at the close while November new crop beans were fractionally higher. Soybean meal futures were $1.70 to $2.30/ton higher at the closing bell. Soy oil futures closed with 21 point losses. Traders anticipate USDA’s weekly update will show between 400,000 and 900,000 MT of old crop bean export sales. New crop soybean bookings are estimated between 200k and 500k MT. Traders are looking for soymeal bookings to range 100-350k MT for the week ending May 21. Soybean oil sales are estimated at 5,000 to 30,000 MT. The National Grain and Oil Information Centre in China reported soybean crush from last week was 2.1 MMT, which was a weekly record for the nation and up 190,000 wk/wk. IGC raised their estimate for World soybean ending stocks by 2 MMT to 42 MMT.

Jul 20 Soybeans closed at $8.47, down 1 1/2 cents,

Aug 20 Soybeans closed at $8.49 1/4, down 1 cent,

Sep 20 Soybeans closed at $8.50 1/2, unch,

Nov 20 Soybeans closed at $8.56, up 1/2 cent,

Jul 20 Soybean Meal closed at $284.30, up $2.30

Jul 20 Soybean Oil closed at $27.39, down $0.21

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Two of the wheat markets ended the Thursday session with double digit gains. KC HRW wheat futures were the strongest with futures closing 2.2% to 2.7% higher. Chicago wheat futures were 1.7% to 2% higher at the close, with Sept at $5.17 3/4 /bu. Minneapolis spring wheat gained 1.1% to 1.2% with Sept closing the day at $5.30 3/4 /bu. Estimates ahead of the Export Sales report have old crop wheat bookings at 50,000 to 300,000 MT. Traders estimate 2020/21 sales to come in at 100,000 to 300,000 MT. The European Commission lowered their forecast for 2020/21 common wheat production by 4.3 MMT to 121.5 MMT. The Commission also cut projected exports to 26.5 MMT from 28 MMT. The May WASDE listed 2020/21 EU wheat production at 143 MMT and exports at 28 MMT. Ukraine Grain Traders Union estimates 2020 wheat harvest at 26.7 MMT. USDA’s forecast for Ukraine new crop production is 28 MMT. The International Grain Council estimates 2020/21 World wheat production at 766 MMT, that was up 2 MMT from their previous estimate but still 2 MMT below USDA.

Jul 20 CBOT Wheat closed at $5.14 1/2, up 10 cents,

Jul 20 KCBT Wheat closed at $4.64, up 12 1/4 cents,

Jul 20 MGEX Wheat closed at $5.19 1/4, up 6 cents,

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Live cattle futures traded in both directions on Thursday but ultimately were 10 to 67 cents higher at the closing bell. October fats ended the session with a nickel loss. Front month feeder cattle futures rallied after posting midday losses and ended the day with triple digit gains in Aug and Sept. The May 26 Feeder Cattle Index from CME was 33 cents lower to $126.11. On Thursday reported cash trades went for $115 and for $119 to $120. Sales were reported at $120 in the South, and $178 to $190 for Dressed. Wholesale boxed beef prices were reduced further on Thursday, Choice boxes were $8.21 lower and Select boxes were down by $6.11. Thursday’s 110,000 head cattle slaughter brought the shortened week’s total up to 330,000. FI slaughter from the same week last year was 369,000.

Jun 20 Cattle closed at $101.475, up $0.675,

Aug 20 Cattle closed at $101.175, up $0.450,

Oct 20 Cattle closed at $102.800, down $0.050,

Aug 20 Feeder Cattle closed at $135.500, up $1.475

Sep 20 Feeder Cattle closed at $136.250, up $1.175

Oct 20 Feeder Cattle closed at $136.775, up $0.850

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

July hog futures touched limit losses late in the session but closed the day down by $3.65. The other front months were $1.60 to $3.25 lower on Thursday, with losses less pronounced in the deferred contracts. The CME Lean Hog index was up 23 cents on May 26, to $62.53. USDA National Average Base Hog price was $37.82 on Thursday, down by $1.57. The National Pork Carcass Cutout Value was $89.46 on Thursday, up by 64 cents. The primals were mixed again, but the daily changes in butts and hams set new records. Butts were down $30.02 to $121.44 cwt. and hams were up by $22.07 to $65.37 cwt. USDA estimated WTD hog slaughter through Thursday at 1.25m head. Last year’s harvest pace through the same day was 1.41m head. Broiler egg sets are running 2% below year ago, but creeping higher.

Jun 20 Hogs closed at $56.925, down $3.250,

Jul 20 Hogs closed at $55.650, down $3.650

Aug 20 Hogs closed at $55.025, down $2.575

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Cotton futures were 39 to 77 points lower at the closing bell. July contracts were down the most with 1.3% losses to 57.57 cents/lb. Dec cotton closed the Thursday session 0.8% lower at 57.54 cents/lb. The online cotton trading platform The Seam reported 1,003 bales sold at an average gross price of 50.21 cents/lb. Last week’s total sales were 4,250 bales. The Cotlook A index was back up 50 points on May 27, to 66.15c/lb. FSA revised the weekly AWP 53 points lower to 47.48 cents/lb. The LDP for the week is 4.52 cents/lb.

Jul 20 Cotton closed at 57.57, down 77 points,

Oct 20 Cotton closed at 57.2, down 43 points

Dec 20 Cotton closed at 57.54, down 49 points

Mar 21 Cotton closed at 58.52, down 46 points

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Market Commentary provided by:

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